May 18, 2019

Ms. Cathy Vaughan, Championship Coordinator

Mr. John Lorimer, Time Standards

Western Zone Swimming

Re: 2019 WZ LC Age Group Championship Qualifying Times

Ms. Vaughn and Mr. Lorimer,

Using a database of 23 million USA-S age group swims, I found that the qualifying times for the 2018 and 2019 Western Zone LC Age Group Championships give significantly more opportunity to boys at the expense of girls, and to older athletes at the expense of younger ones.

• A boy has a greater likelihood of making the cut than a girl for every event in the meet.

• Overall, a boy is expected to qualify for 1.4 times as many events as a girl..  

• In the 11-12 age group, a boy is expected to qualify for 1.7 times as many events as a girl.

• The least fair qualifying times are for the 11-12 50 Free, where a boy has 3.0 times greater opportunity to qualify than a girl.  This is the most unfair event in any zone age group championship this year.

• 13-14 year olds are expected to qualify for 3.6 times as many events as 10/Unders.

My analysis of the meet cuts is available online at: http://www.swimtheory.com/home/003-qualifying-times/meets/wz2019l

My detailed analysis of the 11-12 50 Free is available at:

http://www.swimtheory.com/home/003-qualifying-times/meets/wz2019-50FR

Using the same historical database, I compared the four zone LC age group championships in 2018.  The comparison shows that the Central Zone, which uses "AAA" motivational times, has the fairest qualifying times.  My analysis of the 2018 championships is also available online at: http://www.swimtheory.com/home/003-qualifying-times/003-007-zone-championships-are-unfair

Based on these analyses, I respectfully recommend that the Western Zone LC age group championship consider using USA Swimming’s "AAA" motivational times for its qualifying times because they are vastly fairer than the current Western Zone qualifying times.

Sincerely,

@SwimTheorist

CC: Western Zone Committee Members